The lead time is a straight line, extended. krnali samples container
working-set memory from metrics-server into a per-series store, fits an
ordinary least-squares regression over the window, and extends that line
until it crosses the container memory limit. In this record the fit gives
513.3 KiB/h against a 256.0 MiB limit, which is the 485h28m estimate. The
range is a fixed band of plus or minus 20 percent around the estimate,
documented as a band rather than a standard error because the fit does not
expose one.
A slope alone is not a trend. Before a forecast is emitted the series has
to clear a gate ladder: enough samples and history to be out of cold start,
a usable fit over the whole window and over the trailing window, a
Mann-Kendall rank test agreeing the rise is monotonic rather than the work
of two outliers, a limit the line actually reaches, and a confidence above
the emission floor. This record shows Mann-Kendall Z=11.9 in evidence step 3.
Confidence is a published formula, not a judgement. It is
60 · R² + 25 · min(span / 60min, 1) + 15 · min(recurrence / 3, 1),
rounded and banded into low, medium or high. You can check this record by
hand. R² is 0.27, the window span is 21m and the symptom had recurred 132
times, so 60 × 0.27 + 25 × 0.35 + 15 × 1 = 39.95, which rounds to the 40 the
object carries. Same evidence, same number, every time.
That number is deliberately not high. A 21 minute window with an R² of 0.27
is a weak fit, and the formula says so rather than rounding it up. A tool
that scored this 90 would be lying.
The forecast was withdrawn later, for a different reason. A weak fit lowers
confidence; it does not close a record. The operator set
Active=False with the reason TrendNoLongerRising
because the sustained rise the forecast was built on had stopped. That is
the condition printed at the foot of the record above.
Provenance on the lead time reads deterministic because a
model was not involved in producing any figure on this object.